经贸研究

香港与国家的依存关系

2018年5月23日

改革开放40年，特别是回归20年来，不少人觉得香港对国家的重要性越来越小。单说经济方面，香港从90年代中期经办全国外贸近半，下跌到近年13%的比例。港资在全国引进外国直接投资的比例也从1987年近70%的水平，减少到2005年的30%(但近年又回升到75%)。香港旅客占全国到访客源的比例也从1980年近70%的高峰减到2016年的54%。

反之，香港对国家的依赖却与日俱增。外贸方面内地占香港进出口的比例，从1980年不足13%上升到2017年的50%。来自内地的直接投资(不包括以其他地方名义如开曼群岛、百慕达等的转投资)，从80年代近乎零的水平，上升到2016年底占香港全部外来投资的26%。而访港内地旅客的比例，也从40年前近乎零，跃升到2017年的76%。

以上的数据清楚表明，香港在全国某些经济领域的地位在过去数十年有所改变，却不能说明香港对国家经济发展总体的重要性在下降。因为内地和香港的经济关系在不断演进，随着国家经济的发展，香港在传统领域的重要性下降的同时，在不少新经济领域的地位却不断上升。譬如金融，随着国家经济和金融市场的发展，引进外资的渠道也从银行贷款和直接投资扩展到资本市场的直接融资。自1992年红筹、国企在香港股市上市开始，内地企业在香港股市通过公开和私人发售合共融资5,600亿美元，虽然仍逊于同期香港对内地直接投资累积总数的9,000亿美元，但个别年份已超出直接投资之数。以直接投资和股票融资合算，香港占内地的海外融资比例从90年代至今大部分时间在50%以上，近年个别年份更高达80%。不单没有减少，实际上还在增加。

 

同样，在贸易方面，香港与内地的关系也在不断演变。从简单的海关统计看，香港与内地有关的贸易占全国外贸的比例自1992年的49%高峰一直下降到近年的13%。但由于产业转移，香港不少产品从生产到付运都已转到内地，其贸易统计也归入国家海关范围。如果把这些香港企业在内地生产和付运的「离岸贸易」也纳入经香港(企业)处理的外贸货值，那香港占全国外贸比重的高峰期将从1992年的49%推延至2000年的67%，而近年的水平也从13%倍升到27%。

以上两例，说明内地和香港经济关系的发展，需要有机和全面的了解，不能以简单机械的方法分析。当然，随着内地和香港经济的发展，两地经济的对比依存关系也在不断变化。当中有些地方香港的重要性在缩小，对国家的依赖在增加，特别是在传统经济部门如外贸、旅游等。但也有些地方只是因为经济型态和统计方法的改变做成错觉，正如上述的离岸贸易与直接融资等。更有一些部门香港对国家的贡献和重要性都在增加，例如对外投资、人民币国际化和技术引进等新经济发展领域。

在对外投资方面，香港一直高踞各投资目的地榜首，占国家对外直接投资的60%以上。而且从简单的直营代理形式不断深化，发展成集团控股、并购和专业营运等不同型态。人民币国际化也从简单的银行零售业务向资本市场和保险、理财、外汇等专业金融领域扩展。并且在各主要领域均占据压倒性的市场份额，包括离岸人民币存款、贷款、贸易结算、汇兑等。

由于是新的发展领域，统计上不一定能适时反映到它们的重要性和发展情况。也由于不少是颇为专业的领域，一般大众较难掌握和理解，故此在认知上会有一定差距。但只要细心观察，深入了解，香港与国家相互依存支持的经济关系不难掌握。特别是在当前国家经济进入新时期的发展阶段，需要深入市场化改革，促进产业升级转型，对外全方位开放，与全球经济更紧密结合，积极参与和引领世界经济的复苏和重组，香港作为国家最市场化、最国际化和最开放的城市，不论在国内改革和对外开放方面都有着独特的地位和角色。

本文原载于《信报》(2018年5月10日)

https://hkmb.hktdc.com/sc/1X0AE0V5/%E7%BB%8F%E8%B4%B8%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6/%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E4%B8%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%AE%B6%E7%9A%84%E4%BE%9D%E5%AD%98%E5%85%B3%E7%B3%BB

經貿研究

香港與國家的依存關係

2018年5月23日

改革開放40年，特別是回歸20年來，不少人覺得香港對國家的重要性越來越小。單說經濟方面，香港從90年代中期經辦全國外貿近半，下跌到近年13%的比例。港資在全國引進外國直接投資的比例也從1987年近70%的水平，減少到2005年的30%(但近年又回升到75%)。香港旅客佔全國到訪客源的比例也從1980年近70%的高峰減到2016年的54%。

反之，香港對國家的依賴卻與日俱增。外貿方面內地佔香港進出口的比例，從1980年不足13%上升到2017年的50%。來自內地的直接投資(不包括以其他地方名義如開曼群島、百慕達等的轉投資)，從80年代近乎零的水平，上升到2016年底佔香港全部外來投資的26%。而訪港內地旅客的比例，也從40年前近乎零，躍升到2017年的76%。

以上的數據清楚表明，香港在全國某些經濟領域的地位在過去數十年有所改變，卻不能說明香港對國家經濟發展總體的重要性在下降。因為內地和香港的經濟關係在不斷演進，隨著國家經濟的發展，香港在傳統領域的重要性下降的同時，在不少新經濟領域的地位卻不斷上升。譬如金融，隨著國家經濟和金融市場的發展，引進外資的渠道也從銀行貸款和直接投資擴展到資本市場的直接融資。自1992年紅籌、國企在香港股市上市開始，內地企業在香港股市通過公開和私人發售合共融資5,600億美元，雖然仍遜於同期香港對內地直接投資累積總數的9,000億美元，但個別年份已超出直接投資之數。以直接投資和股票融資合算，香港佔內地的海外融資比例從90年代至今大部分時間在50%以上，近年個別年份更高達80%。不單沒有減少，實際上還在增加。

同樣，在貿易方面，香港與內地的關係也在不斷演變。從簡單的海關統計看，香港與內地有關的貿易佔全國外貿的比例自1992年的49%高峰一直下降到近年的13%。但由於產業轉移，香港不少產品從生產到付運都已轉到內地，其貿易統計也歸入國家海關範圍。如果把這些香港企業在內地生產和付運的「離岸貿易」也納入經香港(企業)處理的外貿貨值，那香港佔全國外貿比重的高峰期將從1992年的49%推延至2000年的67%，而近年的水平也從13%倍升到27%。

以上兩例，說明內地和香港經濟關係的發展，需要有機和全面的瞭解，不能以簡單機械的方法分析。當然，隨著內地和香港經濟的發展，兩地經濟的對比依存關係也在不斷變化。當中有些地方香港的重要性在縮小，對國家的依賴在增加，特別是在傳統經濟部門如外貿、旅遊等。但也有些地方只是因為經濟型態和統計方法的改變做成錯覺，正如上述的離岸貿易與直接融資等。更有一些部門香港對國家的貢獻和重要性都在增加，例如對外投資、人民幣國際化和技術引進等新經濟發展領域。

在對外投資方面，香港一直高踞各投資目的地榜首，佔國家對外直接投資的60%以上。而且從簡單的直營代理形式不斷深化，發展成集團控股、併購和專業營運等不同型態。人民幣國際化也從簡單的銀行零售業務向資本市場和保險、理財、外匯等專業金融領域擴展。並且在各主要領域均佔據壓倒性的市場份額，包括離岸人民幣存款、貸款、貿易結算、匯兌等。

由於是新的發展領域，統計上不一定能適時反映到它們的重要性和發展情況。也由於不少是頗為專業的領域，一般大眾較難掌握和理解，故此在認知上會有一定差距。但只要細心觀察，深入瞭解，香港與國家相互依存支持的經濟關係不難掌握。特別是在當前國家經濟進入新時期的發展階段，需要深入市場化改革，促進產業升級轉型，對外全方位開放，與全球經濟更緊密結合，積極參與和引領世界經濟的復甦和重組，香港作為國家最市場化、最國際化和最開放的城市，不論在國內改革和對外開放方面都有著獨特的地位和角色。

本文原載於《信報》(2018年5月10日) 

https://hkmb.hktdc.com/tc/1X0AE0V5/%E7%B6%93%E8%B2%BF%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6/%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E8%88%87%E5%9C%8B%E5%AE%B6%E7%9A%84%E4%BE%9D%E5%AD%98%E9%97%9C%E4%BF%82

HKTDC RESEARCH

Hong Kong and the Mainland: An Evolving Interdependency

23 May 2018

With the mainland having adopted its reform and opening-up strategy some 40 years ago and 20 years having now passed since the return of Hong Kong’s sovereignty, many people believe the high status once accorded Hong Kong has dwindled. On the economic front, they cite the fact that Hong Kong’s share of China’s overall foreign trade has dropped from almost 50% in the mid-1990s to 13% in more recent years. Similarly, Hong Kong’s share of foreign direct investment (FDI) in China has also declined, falling from its 1987 high of about 70% to just 30% in 2005 (although, more recently, it did rebound to 75%). Moreover, Hong Kong’s share of the total number of visitors to China has also declined, falling from 70% in 1980 to 54% in 2016.

On the other hand, Hong Kong’s reliance on the mainland has increased notably. In terms of external trade, the mainland’s share of Hong Kong’s import-export trade rose from 13% in 1980 to 50% in 2017. The share of direct investment from the mainland (not including indirect investment channeled via other sources such as the Cayman Islands and Bermuda) as part of Hong Kong’s total FDI climbed from virtually zero in the 1980s to 26% as of the end of 2016. In addition, the percentage of Hong Kong’s total number of visitors from the mainland surged from pretty much nil 40 years ago to 76% in 2017.

 Chart: Closer Hong Kong-Mainland tourism ties, from one-way to two-way

The above figures clearly show that, over the past few decades, the significance of Hong Kong within a number of China’s economic sectors has changed considerably. The figures, however, do not indicate that the importance of Hong Kong to China’s overall economic development has in any way diminished. As the economic connections between the mainland and Hong Kong have continued to evolve and as the mainland’s own economy has grown considerably, the significance of Hong Kong in a number of traditional sectors may well have dwindled. At the same time, though, its significance in several new economic sectors has clearly been enhanced.

Taking the financial sector as an example, as the mainland’s economy and its financial markets have developed, the channels for sourcing overseas funding have broadened, graduating from bank loans and direct investments to direct financing via the capital market. Since 1992, when red-chips and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) were first listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, mainland enterprises have raised a total of US$560 billion through public and private offerings on the Hong Kong stock market. Although this amount still falls short of the US$900 billion cumulative total of Hong Kong direct investments in the mainland during the same period, in certain years, the amount of funds raised through capital markets exceeded the amount of direct investment. In terms of the combined total of direct investment and capital market financing, Hong Kong’s share of China’s offshore financing was nearly always above the 50% mark as far back as the 1990s and right up to the present day. In recent years, this share occasionally came close to 80%. Rather than dropping, then, the level of financing the mainland derives from Hong Kong has actually been increasing.

Chart: Hong Kong’s share of China’s capital inflow

Similarly, trade relations between Hong Kong and the mainland have also gone through something of an evolutionary process. Simply by reviewing the relevant customs statistics it is clear that the share of Hong Kong-mainland trade as a percentage of the country’s overall foreign trade has declined considerably, falling from its 1992 high of 49% to just 13% in recent years.

It should be noted, however, that as a result of industrial relocation, the manufacturing and export shipment of many “Hong Kong products” are now conducted via the mainland. As a consequence, the applicable trade statistics have been attributed to the mainland’s overall foreign trade figures. Should the Hong Kong-related “offshore trade” figures currently allocated to the mainland be restored to Hong Kong’s own external trade figures, a very different picture would emerge. Such an exercise would clearly demonstrate that Hong Kong’s peak contribution to China’s overall level of external trade was not the 49% recorded for 1992, but rather the 67% that went unacknowledged in 2000. More recently, its recorded share, as revealed by the “offshore trade-adjusted” figures, would be 27%, more than double the official figure of 13%.

Chart: Hong Kong’s share of China’s trade, onshore and offshore

The two examples above clearly show that in order to fully understand the evolving nature of Hong Kong-mainland economic relations, an “organic”, holistic perspective must be adopted as opposed to a simple, mechanical perusal of the data on offer. Obviously, as the economies of the mainland and Hong Kong continue to develop, the interdependent relationship between the two will remain in a state of flux.

While the significance of Hong Kong in certain areas is clearly declining, its reliance on the mainland is increasing. This is particularly true in a number of the more traditional economic sectors, notably external trade and tourism. Due to changes in the relevant economic patterns, as well as shortcomings in certain statistical approaches, a number of misconceptions have arisen, particularly with regard to offshore trade and direct financing. There are also certain sectors where Hong Kong’s contribution and significance to China as a whole has grown considerably. This is most apparent with regard to several specific areas of economic development, including outward investment, RMB internationalisation and technology transfer.

As far as outward investment is concerned, Hong Kong has always been the mainland’s leading investment destination, accounting for more than 60% of its total outward direct investment. It should also be noted that the available forms of outward investment have also broadened. Whereas once the simple direct agency model prevailed, there are now a variety of options on offer, including group holdings, mergers, acquisitions and special-purpose vehicles.

In a similar fashion, the RMB internationalization options have also increased. This has seen the sector expand from simple retail bank business to capital market activities and a range of specialized financial sectors, including insurance, wealth management and foreign exchanges. Across many of these sectors, though, Hong Kong remains the dominant player in the market, accounting for a substantial proportion of all RMB offshore deposit, loan, trade settlement, and foreign exchange settlement activity.

With many of the above instances relating to emerging economic development sectors, their true significance and likely growth may be difficult to glean from the official statistics. Additionally, as many of these sectors are highly specialized, they are not easily comprehensible to casual onlookers. Indeed, it is only through careful observation and in-depth study that the true nature of the economic interdependence and mutual support that exists between Hong Kong and the mainland can be properly ascertained.

At present, the mainland economy is entering a new phase of its development. This has seen it committing to a broad range of initiatives, such as market reform, industrial upgrade, wider opening up to the outside world, greater integration with the international economy and extensive proactive participation in the global economic recovery. Amid all this, Hong Kong, as the mainland’s most market-oriented, internationalized and open city, has a unique role to play in the country’s overall reform, as well as an immense contribution to make to its process of opening-up to the outside world.

This article originally appeared in Hong Kong Economic Journal (10 May 2018)

https://hkmb.hktdc.com/en/1X0AE0V5/hktdc-research/Hong-Kong-and-the-Mainland-An-Evolving-Interdependency

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